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14 /100
LOW RISK
Score updated Jul 28, 2026

AXSM — Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. Dilution Risk Tracker

Track AXSM dilution risk with DilutionWatch's stock tracker. DilutionScore™ measures dilution risk across 5 factors — lower scores indicate higher risk of share dilution.

⚠️ Not financial advice. Do your own research before making any investment decisions.

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As of July 28, 2026, Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. (AXSM) has a DilutionWatch DilutionScore of 14/100, rated LOW dilution risk. Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. has a market capitalization of $12.07B, 51.46M shares outstanding, 418 institutional holders tracked. Key dilution vectors include approximately 30 months of cash runway.

Source: DilutionWatch (dilutionwatch.com) — data updated daily from SEC EDGAR filings. Not financial advice.

Score Breakdown

📋 Offering Ability
20
💰 Cash Runway
10
📊 Float Risk
10
⚠️ Warrant Exposure
15
🔄Convertible Debt—

Dilution Forecast

☀️
Clear
No significant dilution signals
0%
No significant dilution signals detected for AXSM.
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Market Data

Market Cap$12.07B
Shares Outstanding51.46M
Float43.55M
Cash$305.11M
Debt$187.85M
Short InterestN/A

Institutional Holdings

QoQ: ↑ 10.9% shares (2026Q1 vs prior)
418 institutional holders · 44.34M shares
#1 BlackRock, Inc. 3.91M shares
#2 VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC 3.88M shares
#3 VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC 2.06M shares
+ 17 more holders Sign up free to view →

Short Interest

Short Interest3.02M
Days to Cover3.8
% of Float6.9%
FINRA data as of Jul 15, 2026

Recent SEC Activity

xbrl XBRL WARRANT 2026-03-31
xbrl XBRL CONVERTIBLE 2016-12-31
4 INSIDER TRANSACTION 2026-04-23
4 INSIDER TRANSACTION 2026-04-23
4 INSIDER TRANSACTION 2026-04-23
Full SEC filing analysis available with free account →

Recent News

No recent news

What This Means for AXSM Shareholders

Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. (AXSM) has a DilutionScore of 14/100, rated Low dilution risk. At this score level, DilutionWatch's real-time EDGAR monitoring shows limited near-term dilution signals. This does not mean zero dilution risk — shelf registrations can be filed and activated quickly — but the current filing profile shows no major outstanding dilution programs. Score as of July 28, 2026.

DilutionWatch's EDGAR monitoring for AXSM shows no major active dilution programs at this time. The primary risk categories — shelf registration capacity, ATM programs, warrant overhang, and cash runway — are each within normal ranges for a company of this profile. This can change quickly if a new S-3 or Form S-1 is filed.

DilutionWatch tracks over 25 SEC filing types for AXSM in real-time, scanning EDGAR every 60 seconds. The DilutionWatch shows real-time score changes for AXSM alongside comparable low-risk stocks. Not financial advice — this analysis is for informational purposes only.

Understanding AXSM's Dilution Risk Factors

Primary Risk Drivers

The two most significant dilution risks for Axsome Therapeutics are Offering Ability and Cash Runway. Offering Ability scores at a level indicating potential for future capital raises, which can dilute existing shareholders. Cash Runway is also elevated, reflecting the company's reliance on ongoing cash generation to sustain operations, signaling potential need for funding that could lead to share issuance. These factors together suggest that the company may require additional capital in the near term, increasing the risk of dilution through new equity offerings.

Factors Currently Not a Concern

Float Risk and Warrant Exposure are currently low, indicating minimal near-term risk from existing outstanding shares or warrants. Float Risk remains manageable due to the limited number of shares available for trading, while warrant exposure is low because there are few warrants outstanding relative to the total share count. A change in either area would become concerning if a large number of warrants were exercised or if the float significantly expanded through new issuance.

SEC Filings to Watch

Key filings include S-3 registration statements, which signal potential future offerings; 424B5 documents, indicating planned sales of securities; and 8-K Item 1.01 reports, which disclose material events such as new equity issuances or financing activities. Additionally, 10-Q quarterly reports should be monitored for changes in cash position or capital structure that may hint at upcoming funding needs.

How Dilution Happens

When a company issues new shares to raise capital, the total number of outstanding shares increases, reducing the ownership percentage of existing shareholders. For AXSM, if Offering Ability is high and the company needs funds, it may issue new stock through a public offering or private placement. This directly dilutes the share count of current investors unless they participate in the new issuance.

What Would Make This Worse

A significant worsening would occur if the company were to issue convertible notes or warrants that convert into equity, or if it enters into a major financing round with substantial dilution. Additionally, if cash runway deteriorates further and the company is forced to raise capital quickly through equity issuance, this would increase the risk profile substantially.

Key Insight

While current dilution risks are manageable, future capital needs could escalate exposure if funding comes in the form of new share issuance rather than debt or retained earnings.

How to Monitor AXSM for Dilution Risk

What This Risk Level Means

A low dilution risk score for Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. (AXSM) indicates that the company is operating with a strong financial position and minimal exposure to potential dilution events. As a large-cap operating company, AXSM benefits from greater stability and access to capital markets compared to smaller firms, but still requires monitoring for any signs of increased issuance or equity-based financing. The absence of elevated factors means that while the company may be issuing securities, it is not doing so at a rate or scale that significantly threatens shareholder value. This risk level suggests the company is managing its capital structure prudently and maintaining investor confidence.

What Typically Happens Next

Companies with low dilution risk often proceed cautiously with equity issuance, typically avoiding frequent or large-scale offerings. For a large-cap operating company like AXSM, common next steps may include strategic capital raises to fund operations or acquisitions, or the use of shelf registrations for future financing needs. While ATM programs and warrant exercises are less likely at this risk level, they can still occur if the company is pursuing growth initiatives. Monitoring for any sudden changes in issuance patterns or new equity commitments is key to identifying shifts in dilution strategy.

Monitoring Playbook

To effectively track AXSM’s dilution risk, use DilutionWatch to set up a custom alert for any changes in DilutionScore or related factors. Check the company's filings monthly and monitor updates on Shelf & ATM Monitor for new registration announcements or offerings. When thresholds are crossed—such as a rise in DilutionScore above 20—immediate review of recent SEC filings is recommended. If a significant equity issuance is detected, reassess the company’s capital structure and potential impact on existing shareholders.

Early Warning Signals

Several specific signals may indicate a worsening dilution profile for AXSM. First, an increase in the number of outstanding warrants or new warrant issuances could signal future dilution pressure. Second, filing a new shelf registration or initiating an ATM program would be a red flag. Third, a sudden drop in the company’s cash runway score—especially if it approaches 95/100—may indicate financial strain and increased reliance on equity financing.

What a Positive Resolution Looks Like

A positive shift in AXSM's dilution risk profile would be marked by a capital raise that strengthens the balance sheet, or a reduction in outstanding warrants and equity-based incentives. A decrease in DilutionScore due to improved financial stability or a strategic debt paydown would also indicate progress. Additionally, if the company begins to reduce its reliance on external financing and focuses more on organic growth, this would be a strong sign of improved capital management.

Watch For

Any new warrant issuances or shelf filings that could indicate an upcoming equity offering.

Full SEC filing analysis available with free account  →
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