About DilutionWatch

About the Founder

Richard Burke, Founder of Guerilla Finance LLC

Richard is a Gen X software engineer with 40 years of hands-on experience across the full technology stack — from bare-metal infrastructure to cloud architecture, from assembly language to AI-driven data pipelines. He has built and operated financial data systems that process thousands of SEC filings daily, extracting structured signals from unstructured government documents.

As a retail investor, Richard watched institutional players consistently spot dilution events — shelf registrations, ATM offerings, warrant exercises — days or weeks before retail traders even heard about them. The data was public, sitting in SEC EDGAR, but it was buried in legal filings that nobody had time to read. So he built the pipeline himself: automated ingestion, natural language parsing, and a scoring algorithm that surfaces dilution risk before it hits the price.

DilutionWatch was born out of that frustration. If the SEC data existed, he was going to capture it. If it was not in usable form, he was going to build the infrastructure to make it usable. The result is a platform that monitors over 10,000 tickers in real time, processing every relevant SEC filing as it hits EDGAR.

Richard also built and operates several other financial data platforms under the Guerilla Finance umbrella:

• StonkWhisper — Dark pool activity and institutional flow intelligence
• BiotechSign — FDA catalyst tracking and PDUFA date monitoring
• H1BWageCheck — H-1B salary intelligence and labor market data

Our Methodology

DilutionWatch is not a news aggregator or a social sentiment tool. It is a primary-source data platform built directly on top of SEC EDGAR, the official electronic filing system of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

How We Monitor SEC Filings

Our automated pipeline continuously polls SEC EDGAR for new filings across all publicly traded companies. When a relevant filing appears — an S-3 shelf registration, a 424B prospectus supplement, a Form 4 insider transaction, an SC 13D/13G ownership change, or any of dozens of other filing types — our system ingests the full document, parses it for dilution-relevant data points, and updates the affected ticker within minutes.

The DilutionScore Algorithm

Every ticker on DilutionWatch receives a proprietary DilutionScore that quantifies the current dilution risk on a 0–100 scale. The score is computed from multiple weighted factors:

• Shelf registrations (S-3/S-1) — Active shelf capacity relative to market cap
• ATM programs — At-the-market offering agreements and their remaining capacity
• Warrant exposure — Outstanding warrants, exercise prices, and expiration timelines
• PIPE deal history — Private investment in public equity transactions and their terms
• Float analysis — Shares outstanding vs. float, insider ownership concentration
• Institutional holdings (13F) — Quarterly institutional position changes from 13F filings
• Reverse split history — Prior reverse splits as an indicator of ongoing dilution patterns
• Cash runway — Burn rate analysis to predict when a company may need to raise capital

Data Sources

Update Frequency

SEC filings are processed within minutes of appearing on EDGAR. DilutionScores are recalculated continuously as new data arrives. Institutional holdings (13F) are updated quarterly following the SEC filing deadline. Short interest data is updated on FINRA’s twice-monthly reporting schedule.

Data Integrity

The foundation of DilutionWatch is verifiable, primary-source data. Every data point on this platform traces back to an official filing with the SEC or a regulated reporting body.

• Automated SEC EDGAR monitoring with human review for edge cases and unusual filing structures
• All data sourced from official government filings — we do not rely on third-party data vendors or social media for our core data
• Direct links to source filings — every alert and data point includes a link to the original SEC filing so you can verify it yourself
• Transparent methodology — the DilutionScore factors are documented, not a black box

We built DilutionWatch because we use it ourselves. When the data is wrong, we are the first ones to notice, because our own money is on the line.

Operating Philosophy

The operating doctrine at Guerilla Finance is Guerilla Rinzai — hyper-disciplined, zero-ceremony execution. Guerilla warfare principles (no resources, maximum leverage, no wasted motion) fused with Rinzai Zen directness (cut to the point, no drift, no ceremony). Build fast. Ship faster.

Every feature on DilutionWatch exists because a retail trader needed it. No feature committees. No roadmap theater. If the data exists and traders need it, we build the pipeline.

The Fleet