Features Pricing Learn Reverse Splits Tracker Shelf & ATM Tracker Warrant Tracker PIPE Deal Tracker Weekly Report FAQ API Sign In →
26 /100
COMPONENT-LIMITED
Score updated Oct 13, 2026

ASTS — AST SpaceMobile, Inc. Dilution Risk Tracker

Track ASTS dilution risk with DilutionWatch's stock tracker. DilutionScore™ measures dilution risk across 5 factors — lower scores indicate higher risk of share dilution.

⚠️ Not financial advice. Do your own research before making any investment decisions.

🔔 Track ASTS — Get alerts when the score changes →

As of October 13, 2026, AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) has a DilutionWatch DilutionScore of 26/100, rated MEDIUM dilution risk. This is a component-limited score because one or more material inputs are unavailable or not applicable. AST SpaceMobile, Inc. has a market capitalization of $2.66B, 51.76M shares outstanding, 10 institutional holders tracked. Stored dilution-related fields include ATM program capacity of $80.00M.

This page includes automatically generated factual summaries from DilutionWatch data. It is not financial advice, not investment research, and not a recommendation. Do your own research. Read the full disclaimer and terms of service.

Score Breakdown

📋 Offering Ability
17
💰 Cash Runway
0
📊Float Risk—
⚠️ Warrant Exposure
15
🔄 Convertible Debt
85

Dilution Forecast

⛈️
Warning
High probability of dilution event
model est. 35%
🔁 Convertible Conversion model 60%
• Major convertible overhang: 38% potential dilution
• Convertible risk score very high (85/100)
💰 Capital Raise model 18%
• Active ATM program with $80M remaining capacity
🔔 Track ASTS — Get forecast alerts →

Market Data

Market Cap$2.66B
Shares Outstanding51.76M
FloatN/A
Cash$4.59B
Debt$2.97B
Short InterestN/A

Source-Backed Evidence Depth

This public preview uses stored DilutionWatch fields and linked SEC/market records only. Missing values are not estimated.

FieldCurrent ValueBasis
DilutionScore26/100DilutionWatch score record
Shares Outstanding51.76MVerified float table or market cache
Public FloatNot availableVerified float table or market cache
Market Cap$2.66BMarket data cache
Cash Runway338.9 monthsDilutionWatch score inputs
Shelf CapacityNone in current score inputsSEC-derived dilution fields
ATM Capacity$80.00MSEC-derived dilution fields
Outstanding WarrantsNone in current score inputsSEC-derived dilution fields

Recent source-backed SEC insight records available on this page: 7.

Recent SEC source mix: 3 1, 4 4, XBRL 2.

The page does not infer future share issuance, financing probability, cash needs, management intent, or price impact when source fields are absent.

Institutional Holdings

10 institutional holders · 100.82M shares
#1 Rakuten Group, Inc. 31.02M shares
#2 Blackrock Inc. 14.52M shares
#3 Vanguard Capital Management LLC 11.49M shares
+ 7 more holders Sign up free to view →

Institutional holder totals are aggregated from ownership filings and may use a different share basis or reporting date than public float. They are not a reconciliation against tradeable float.

Short Interest

Short Interest64.83M
Days to Cover6.1
% of FloatN/A
FINRA data as of Sep 30, 2026

Recent SEC Activity

xbrl XBRL WARRANT 2026-03-02
xbrl XBRL CONVERTIBLE 2026-03-02
4 INSIDER TRANSACTION 2026-10-01
3 FORM3 2026-10-01
4 INSIDER TRANSACTION 2026-09-17
Full SEC filing analysis available with free account →

Recent News

Factual ASTS Dilution Snapshot

AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) has a DilutionScore of 26/100, rated Medium dilution risk. Score date: October 13, 2026.

This automatically generated snapshot is assembled from stored DilutionWatch data fields and may contain data-source errors or omissions. It is not financial advice, not investment research, and not a recommendation. Do your own research and review the full disclaimer and terms of service.

DilutionScore History — Last 90 Days

ASTS's DilutionScore is currently 26/100 (Medium risk), with 4 score changes tracked over 89 days. The score improved from 13/100 (Low risk).

Period Score Risk Level Duration
Oct 09 – Oct 13, 202626/100MEDIUM5 days
Oct 02 – Oct 08, 202613/100LOW7 days
Aug 17 – Oct 01, 202624/100LOW46 days
Aug 14 – Aug 16, 202635/100MEDIUM2 days
Jul 16 – Aug 13, 202624/100LOW29 days

Score recalculated daily from SEC filings and market data. Sign up free for real-time score change alerts.

Share Dilution History

ASTS shares outstanding have increased 2.1% from 292.64M (Mar 2026) to 298.75M (May 2026). Each increase represents potential dilution to existing shareholders.

Date Shares Outstanding Public Float Change
May 31, 2026298.75M265.72M▼ 0.02%
May 23, 2026298.75M265.77M▼ 0.02%
May 16, 2026298.75M265.81M▲ 0.17%
May 12, 2026298.68M265.34M▲ 2.09%
May 09, 2026298.68M259.92M▲ 0.50%
May 08, 2026298.68M258.63M▲ 2.18%
Apr 26, 2026292.64M253.12M▲ 2.04%
Apr 25, 2026292.64M248.06M▼ 9.51%
Apr 24, 2026292.64M274.14M▲ 12.76%
Apr 15, 2026292.64M243.12M▲ 47.74%
Apr 07, 2026292.64M164.56M▼ 0.43%
Mar 28, 2026292.64M165.27M▼ 32.32%

Share counts sourced from verified regulatory filings. Increases indicate dilution events.

Track ASTS Dilution Risk in Real-Time
DilutionWatch monitors SEC filings 24/7 and alerts you the moment ASTS files a shelf registration, ATM offering, warrant notice, or convertible note. Free tier available — no credit card required.
Start Tracking ASTS — Free
Email alert within minutes of any SEC filing Daily DilutionScore™ recalculation Score history & trend tracking Tracks 8,000+ tickers simultaneously

Related Stocks — MEDIUM Risk

Other MEDIUM dilution risk stocks tracked by DilutionWatch with similar profiles:

→ SPAC / Warrants sector dilution risk overview

Browse all 8,490+ tracked stocks →

📖 Dilution Education
→ Complete Dilution Guide for Retail Investors → Anti-Dilution Provisions Explained → Stock Dilution Red Flags to Watch → Understanding Shelf Registrations

Score Coverage Note