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43 /100
MEDIUM RISK
Score updated Oct 27, 2026

UPB — Upstream Bio, Inc. Dilution Risk Tracker

Track UPB dilution risk with DilutionWatch's stock tracker. DilutionScore™ measures dilution risk across 5 factors — lower scores indicate higher risk of share dilution.

⚠️ Not financial advice. Do your own research before making any investment decisions.

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As of October 27, 2026, Upstream Bio, Inc. (UPB) has a DilutionWatch DilutionScore of 43/100, rated MEDIUM dilution risk. Upstream Bio, Inc. has a market capitalization of $156.65M, 54.77M shares outstanding, 144 institutional holders tracked.

This page includes automatically generated factual summaries from DilutionWatch data. It is not financial advice, not investment research, and not a recommendation. Do your own research. Read the full disclaimer and terms of service.

Score Breakdown

📋 Offering Ability
40
💰 Cash Runway
25
📊 Float Risk
45
⚠️ Warrant Exposure
40
🔄 Convertible Debt
85

Dilution Forecast

⛈️
Warning
High probability of dilution event
model est. 30%
🔁 Convertible Conversion model 60%
• Major convertible overhang: 64% potential dilution
• Convertible risk score very high (85/100)
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Market Data

Market Cap$156.65M
Shares Outstanding54.77M
Float34.97M
Cash$261.31M
Debt$1.11M
Short InterestN/A

Source-Backed Evidence Depth

This public preview uses stored DilutionWatch fields and linked SEC/market records only. Missing values are not estimated.

FieldCurrent ValueBasis
DilutionScore43/100DilutionWatch score record
Shares Outstanding54.77MVerified float table or market cache
Public Float34.97MVerified float table or market cache
Market Cap$156.65MMarket data cache
Cash Runway18.8 monthsDilutionWatch score inputs
Shelf CapacityNone in current score inputsSEC-derived dilution fields
ATM CapacityNone in current score inputsSEC-derived dilution fields
Outstanding WarrantsNone in current score inputsSEC-derived dilution fields

Recent source-backed SEC insight records available on this page: 1.

Recent SEC source mix: XBRL 1.

The page does not infer future share issuance, financing probability, cash needs, management intent, or price impact when source fields are absent.

UPB SEC Filing Activity — Last 12 Months

Shares outstanding reported by UPB on the cover page of its latest 10-K/10-Q: 54.77M as of August 04, 2026.

DilutionWatch recorded 1 registration or prospectus document for UPB (the filings through which shares are offered) in the last 12 months. Full filing list on SEC EDGAR →

FormWhat it isFilingsMost recent
424B5prospectus supplement (ATM / shelf takedown)1Mar 26, 2026
8-Kcurrent report (material event)5Sep 01, 2026
10-Qquarterly report2Aug 11, 2026
SC 13G/Aamended passive >5% holder filing1Aug 12, 2026
4insider transaction10Jun 11, 2026
3initial insider ownership1Jul 30, 2026

Institutional Holdings

QoQ: ↓ 3.9% shares (2026Q1 vs prior)
144 institutional holders · 49.40M shares
#1 FMR LLC 8.10M shares
#2 ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC 5.69M shares
#3 VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC 3.75M shares
+ 17 more holders Sign up free to view →

Institutional holder totals are aggregated from ownership filings and may use a different share basis or reporting date than public float. They are not a reconciliation against tradeable float.

Short Interest

Short Interest4.48M
Days to Cover3.7
% of Float12.8%
FINRA data as of Oct 15, 2026

Recent SEC Activity

xbrl XBRL CONVERTIBLE 2024-11-07
Full SEC filing analysis available with free account →

Recent News

No recent news available for this ticker.

Factual UPB Dilution Snapshot

Upstream Bio, Inc. (UPB) has a DilutionScore of 43/100, rated Medium dilution risk. Score date: October 27, 2026.

This automatically generated snapshot is assembled from stored DilutionWatch data fields and may contain data-source errors or omissions. It is not financial advice, not investment research, and not a recommendation. Do your own research and review the full disclaimer and terms of service.

DilutionScore History — Last 90 Days

UPB's DilutionScore is currently 43/100 (Medium risk), with 5 score changes tracked over 89 days. The score improved from 38/100 (Medium risk).

Period Score Risk Level Duration
Oct 10 – Oct 27, 202643/100MEDIUM18 days
Sep 26 – Oct 09, 202638/100MEDIUM14 days
Sep 23 – Sep 25, 202641/100MEDIUM3 days
Aug 22 – Sep 22, 202638/100MEDIUM32 days
Aug 14 – Aug 21, 202630/100MEDIUM7 days
Jul 30 – Aug 13, 202634/100MEDIUM15 days

Score recalculated daily from SEC filings and market data. Sign up free for real-time score change alerts.

Share Dilution History

UPB shares outstanding have increased 0.7% from 54.04M (Mar 2026) to 54.42M (May 2026). Each increase represents potential dilution to existing shareholders.

Date Shares Outstanding Public Float Change
May 30, 202654.42M34.97M▼ 0.09%
May 17, 202654.42M35.01M▲ 1.21%
Apr 07, 202654.42M34.59M▲ 0.08%
Mar 30, 202654.42M34.56M▲ 0.41%
Mar 20, 202654.04M34.18M▼ 0.42%

Share counts sourced from verified regulatory filings. Increases indicate dilution events.

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