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79 /100
CRITICAL RISK
Score updated Oct 13, 2026

MTVA — MetaVia Inc. Dilution Risk Tracker

Track MTVA dilution risk with DilutionWatch's stock tracker. DilutionScore™ measures dilution risk across 5 factors — lower scores indicate higher risk of share dilution.

⚠️ Not financial advice. Do your own research before making any investment decisions.

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As of October 13, 2026, MetaVia Inc. (MTVA) has a DilutionWatch DilutionScore of 79/100, rated CRITICAL dilution risk. MetaVia Inc. has a market capitalization of $9.55M, 6.59M shares outstanding, 10 institutional holders tracked. Stored dilution-related fields include 8.96M outstanding warrants.

This page includes automatically generated factual summaries from DilutionWatch data. It is not financial advice, not investment research, and not a recommendation. Do your own research. Read the full disclaimer and terms of service.

Score Breakdown

📋 Offering Ability
80
💰 Cash Runway
65
📊 Float Risk
60
⚠️ Warrant Exposure
90
🔄 Convertible Debt
15

Dilution Forecast

⛈️
Warning
High probability of dilution event
model est. 45%
📜 Warrant Exercise model 60%
• Massive warrant overhang: 136% of shares outstanding
• Warrant risk score very high (90/100)
🔄 Reverse Split model est. 40%
• 50-day avg $1.61 approaching $1 threshold
• 8 months cash with weak price
💰 Capital Raise model 15%
• Under 12 months cash (8mo)
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Market Data

Market Cap$9.55M
Shares Outstanding6.59M
Float3.39M
Cash$12.63M
Debt$194.0K
Short InterestN/A

Source-Backed Evidence Depth

This public preview uses stored DilutionWatch fields and linked SEC/market records only. Missing values are not estimated.

FieldCurrent ValueBasis
DilutionScore79/100DilutionWatch score record
Shares Outstanding6.59MVerified float table or market cache
Public Float3.39MVerified float table or market cache
Market Cap$9.55MMarket data cache
Cash Runway8.4 monthsDilutionWatch score inputs
Shelf CapacityNone in current score inputsSEC-derived dilution fields
ATM CapacityNone in current score inputsSEC-derived dilution fields
Outstanding Warrants8.96MSEC-derived dilution fields

Recent source-backed SEC insight records available on this page: 2.

Recent SEC source mix: XBRL 2.

The page does not infer future share issuance, financing probability, cash needs, management intent, or price impact when source fields are absent.

Institutional Holdings

10 institutional holders · 36.3K shares
#1 Vanguard Group Inc 20.1K shares
#2 Citadel Advisors Llc 12.2K shares
#3 Morgan Stanley 1.9K shares
+ 7 more holders Sign up free to view →

Institutional holder totals are aggregated from ownership filings and may use a different share basis or reporting date than public float. They are not a reconciliation against tradeable float.

Short Interest

Short Interest117.4K
Days to Cover2.0
% of Float3.5%
FINRA data as of Sep 30, 2026

Recent SEC Activity

xbrl XBRL WARRANT 2026-08-06
xbrl XBRL CONVERTIBLE 2021-04-15
Full SEC filing analysis available with free account →

Recent News

No recent news available for this ticker.

Factual MTVA Dilution Snapshot

MetaVia Inc. (MTVA) has a DilutionScore of 79/100, rated Critical dilution risk. Score date: October 13, 2026.

This automatically generated snapshot is assembled from stored DilutionWatch data fields and may contain data-source errors or omissions. It is not financial advice, not investment research, and not a recommendation. Do your own research and review the full disclaimer and terms of service.

DilutionScore History — Last 90 Days

MTVA's DilutionScore is currently 79/100 (Critical risk), with 4 score changes tracked over 89 days. The score improved from 73/100 (High risk).

Period Score Risk Level Duration
Oct 01 – Oct 13, 202679/100CRITICAL13 days
Aug 22 – Sep 30, 202673/100HIGH40 days
Aug 14 – Aug 21, 202672/100HIGH7 days
Jul 17 – Aug 13, 202673/100HIGH28 days
Jul 16, 202674/100HIGH1 day

Score recalculated daily from SEC filings and market data. Sign up free for real-time score change alerts.

Share Dilution History

MTVA shares outstanding have increased 55.8% from 3.32M (Mar 2026) to 5.16M (May 2026). Each increase represents potential dilution to existing shareholders.

Date Shares Outstanding Public Float Change
May 17, 20265.16M3.39M▲ 1.44%
Apr 24, 20265.09M3.34M▲ 0.76%
Apr 01, 20265.09M3.31M▲ 40.33%
Mar 30, 20265.09M2.36M▲ 4.01%
Mar 27, 20263.32M2.27M▲ 131.26%

Share counts sourced from verified regulatory filings. Increases indicate dilution events.

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