What is MRNA's dilution risk score?

MRNA has a latest available DilutionScore record of 50/100, categorized as medium dilution risk by the DilutionWatch scoring model. DilutionWatch displays SEC filing and dilution indicators for MRNA, including shelf registrations, ATM offerings, warrant exercises, PIPE deals, and reverse split signals when detected in source data.

What SEC filings does DilutionWatch track for MRNA?

DilutionWatch tracks 25 SEC filing types for MRNA including S-3 shelf registrations, 424B prospectuses (ATM offerings), S-1 registration statements, 8-K material events, warrant exercise notices, convertible note agreements, and Form 4 insider transactions. Alerts are delivered via email within minutes of a filing appearing on EDGAR.

How does stock dilution affect MRNA shareholders?

Stock dilution occurs when a company issues new shares, reducing the ownership percentage of existing shareholders. For MRNA, common dilution events include at-the-market (ATM) stock offerings, shelf registration drawdowns, warrant exercises, and convertible note conversions. Each event increases the share count and can pressure the stock price lower.

Is DilutionWatch free for MRNA tracking?

DilutionWatch provides a free tier that shows DilutionScores and basic filing history for MRNA. Premium plans ($19.95/month Basic, $39.95/month Premium) unlock real-time email alerts, the full Pulse™ feed, advanced dilution forecasts, and access to all 10,000+ tracked tickers.

MRNA Dilution Risk Score: 50/100 (MEDIUM)

Score Breakdown

📋 Offering Ability

💰 Cash Runway

📊 Float Risk

⚠️ Warrant Exposure

🔄 Convertible Debt

Dilution Forecast

⛅

Watch

Minor dilution signals detected

model est. 17%

💰 Capital Raise model 35%

• Low cash runway: 5 months remaining

🔔 Track MRNA — Get forecast alerts →

Market Data

Market Cap$85.33B

Shares Outstanding399.24M

Float370.10M

Cash$1.72B

Debt$591.00M

Short InterestN/A

Source-Backed Evidence Depth

This public preview uses stored DilutionWatch fields and linked SEC/market records only. Missing values are not estimated.

Field	Current Value	Basis
DilutionScore	50/100	DilutionWatch score record
Shares Outstanding	399.24M	Verified float table or market cache
Public Float	370.10M	Verified float table or market cache
Market Cap	$85.33B	Market data cache
Cash Runway	5.3 months	DilutionWatch score inputs
Shelf Capacity	None in current score inputs	SEC-derived dilution fields
ATM Capacity	None in current score inputs	SEC-derived dilution fields
Outstanding Warrants	None in current score inputs	SEC-derived dilution fields

Recent source-backed SEC insight records available on this page: 5.

Recent SEC source mix: 3 1, 4 1, 8-K 1, FORM 4 2.

The page does not infer future share issuance, financing probability, cash needs, management intent, or price impact when source fields are absent.

Institutional Holdings

QoQ: ↑ 13.6% shares (2026Q1 vs prior)

741 institutional holders · 452.91M shares

#1 VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC 45.74M shares

#2 FMR LLC 45.67M shares

#3 BlackRock, Inc. 29.64M shares

+ 17 more holders Sign up free to view →

Institutional holder totals are aggregated from ownership filings and may use a different share basis or reporting date than public float. They are not a reconciliation against tradeable float.

Short Interest

Short Interest30.86M

Days to Cover1.8

% of Float8.3%

FINRA data as of Sep 30, 2026

Recent SEC Activity

4 INSIDER TRANSACTION 2026-10-07

Form 4 INSIDER TRANSACTION 2026-10-05

3 FORM3 2026-10-05

8-K 8K EVENT 2026-09-30

Full SEC filing analysis available with free account →

Recent News

MRNA Stock Gains Over $4B in a Week: Time to Buy, Hold or Sell? Zacks · Oct 13, 2026

Here's Why Moderna (MRNA) Fell More Than Broader Market Zacks · Oct 12, 2026

Moderna’s (MRNA) Cancer Vaccine Breakthrough Drives Sharp Stock Rally Insider Monkey · Oct 12, 2026

Why Did MRNA, HUM, LITE Stocks Surge To 52-Week Highs Last Week? Stocktwits · Oct 12, 2026

Moderna (MRNA) Is Up 18.4% After Cancer Vaccine Milestone And Nasdaq-100 Return Has The Bu Simply Wall St. · Oct 11, 2026

Moderna (MRNA) Stock Looks Expensive Following Its 7x One Year Run Simply Wall St. · Oct 11, 2026

Moderna (MRNA) Stock Sees Modest Fair Value Lift After Cancer Vaccine Analyst Revisions Yahoo Finance · Oct 11, 2026

BNTX, NVAX, MRNA Lead Vaccine Rally After Report Of An NIH Cancer-Vaccine Push Stocktwits · Oct 10, 2026

Factual MRNA Dilution Snapshot

Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) has a DilutionScore of 50/100, rated Medium dilution risk. Score date: October 13, 2026.

Recent SEC activity tracked for MRNA: 4 on 2026-10-07; Form 4 on 2026-10-05; Form 4 on 2026-10-05.

This automatically generated snapshot is assembled from stored DilutionWatch data fields and may contain data-source errors or omissions. It is not financial advice, not investment research, and not a recommendation. Do your own research and review the full disclaimer and terms of service.

DilutionScore History — Last 90 Days

MRNA's DilutionScore has held steady at 50/100 (Medium risk) for 89 consecutive days across the tracked period.

Period	Score	Risk Level	Duration
Jul 16 – Oct 13, 2026	50/100	MEDIUM	89 days

Score recalculated daily from SEC filings and market data. Sign up free for real-time score change alerts.

Share Dilution History

MRNA shares outstanding have increased 0.5% from 394.94M (Mar 2026) to 396.79M (May 2026). Each increase represents potential dilution to existing shareholders.

Date	Shares Outstanding	Public Float	Change
May 09, 2026	396.79M	370.09M	▼ 0.02%
May 03, 2026	396.59M	370.15M	▲ 0.47%
Mar 19, 2026	394.94M	368.43M	▲ 0.03%

Share counts sourced from verified regulatory filings. Increases indicate dilution events.

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