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80 /100
CRITICAL RISK
Score updated Jul 28, 2026

CTOR — Citius Oncology, Inc. Dilution Risk Tracker

Track CTOR dilution risk with DilutionWatch's stock tracker. DilutionScore™ measures dilution risk across 5 factors — lower scores indicate higher risk of share dilution.

⚠️ Not financial advice. Do your own research before making any investment decisions.

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As of July 28, 2026, Citius Oncology, Inc. (CTOR) has a DilutionWatch DilutionScore of 80/100, rated CRITICAL dilution risk. Citius Oncology, Inc. has a market capitalization of $74.20M, 92.98M shares outstanding, 15 institutional holders tracked. Key dilution vectors include 816.7K outstanding warrants, approximately 6 months of cash runway.

Source: DilutionWatch (dilutionwatch.com) — data updated daily from SEC EDGAR filings. Not financial advice.

Score Breakdown

📋 Offering Ability
80
💰 Cash Runway
85
📊 Float Risk
75
⚠️ Warrant Exposure
15
🔄Convertible Debt—

Dilution Forecast

⛈️
Warning
High probability of dilution event
48%
🔄 Reverse Split 70%
• 50-day avg $0.80 below $1 exchange minimum
• Only 6 months cash — financial pressure
💰 Capital Raise 35%
• Low cash runway: 6 months remaining
📉 Score Deterioration 15%
• Score already CRITICAL (80/100) — events likely imminent
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Market Data

Market Cap$74.20M
Shares Outstanding92.98M
Float14.88M
Cash$2.63M
Debt$3.80M
Short InterestN/A

Institutional Holdings

15 institutional holders · 14.78M shares
#1 ARMISTICE CAPITAL, LLC 9.19M shares
#2 BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ 3.84M shares
#3 VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC 1.07M shares
+ 12 more holders Sign up free to view →

Short Interest

Short Interest365.1K
Days to Cover8.3
% of Float2.5%
FINRA data as of Jul 15, 2026

Recent SEC Activity

xbrl XBRL WARRANT 2025-12-10
EFFECT EFFECT 2026-03-02
EFFECT EFFECT 2026-01-12
Full SEC filing analysis available with free account →

Recent News

No recent news

What This Means for CTOR Shareholders

Citius Oncology, Inc. (CTOR) carries a DilutionScore of 80/100, placing it in the Critical dilution risk tier — the highest category tracked by DilutionWatch. Companies at this level typically have active capital-raising programs, compressed cash runway, or a combination of dilution vectors that together represent meaningful downside risk to share count. As of July 28, 2026, this score reflects real-time data pulled directly from SEC EDGAR filings.

DilutionWatch tracks 816,738 outstanding warrants for CTOR. Warrants become dilutive when exercised — converting to common shares at the strike price. Warrants near or in-the-money deserve particular attention since exercise can add materially to the outstanding share count within a short window. Cash runway is a key watch item: CTOR has approximately 6 months of runway at current burn rate. Companies with less than 18 months of runway are statistically more likely to file new shelf registrations or ATM programs within the next two quarters. DilutionWatch monitors SEC 10-Q filings to update this estimate each quarter.

DilutionWatch tracks over 25 SEC filing types for CTOR in real-time, scanning EDGAR every 60 seconds. The DilutionWatch shows real-time score changes for CTOR alongside comparable critical-risk stocks. Not financial advice — this analysis is for informational purposes only.

Warrants Explained →

Understanding CTOR's Dilution Risk Factors

Primary Risk Drivers

The most significant dilution threats for Citius Oncology, Inc. stem from Offering Ability and Cash Runway scores. Offering Ability is at an extreme risk level, indicating that the company has a high potential to raise capital through new equity issuances, which directly increases the total share count. Combined with a Cash Runway score nearing maximum risk, this suggests the firm is operating with minimal cash reserves—only 5.8 months of runway remaining—which heightens the urgency for capital raising. The interplay between these two factors creates a dangerous environment where new shares are likely to be issued to sustain operations, directly diluting existing shareholders.

Factors Currently Not a Concern

Warrant Exposure and Convertible Note Risk are currently low, indicating that the company has limited exposure to equity conversion triggers from warrants or convertible debt. However, any material increase in outstanding warrants or issuance of new convertible notes could rapidly elevate these scores. For instance, if the company files an S-3 registration statement for a new warrant offering, or issues a convertible note with embedded equity features, both factors would spike and signal increasing dilution risk.

SEC Filings to Watch

Several filing types are critical to monitor for signs of dilution. An S-3 registration statement could indicate an upcoming public offering, directly increasing share count. A 424B5 filing often signals a planned equity offering or rights issue, which would also raise concerns. An 8-K Item 1.01 event might report the issuance of new securities, while a 10-Q filing may reveal a sharp decline in cash reserves that could prompt further capital raises.

How Dilution Happens

Dilution occurs when the company issues new shares to raise capital. With Offering Ability at high risk, the firm is likely to pursue equity financings, which increase the total number of outstanding shares. As Cash Runway approaches zero, the pressure mounts to secure funds, leading to more frequent issuance of new stock. Existing shareholders see their ownership percentage decrease with each new share issued, reducing their proportional value in the company.

What Would Make This Worse

If the company were to issue convertible notes or warrants while simultaneously filing for a public offering, this would compound dilution risk significantly. Additionally, if the company enters into agreements that include automatic conversion triggers or anti-dilution protections, these could further accelerate share issuance. A drop in cash reserves below 3 months of operations, coupled with an upcoming SEC filing for equity issuance, would represent a severe deterioration in the risk profile.

Key Insight

Low scores indicate safety; high scores indicate risk. For CTOR, the most concerning factors are those that directly increase share count, such as Offering Ability and Cash Runway.

How to Monitor CTOR for Dilution Risk

What This Risk Level Means

For a micro-cap operating company like Citius Oncology, Inc., a high dilution risk score signals significant exposure to equity dilution events. These companies typically have limited financial resources and often rely on frequent capital raises to sustain operations. With a score indicating elevated risk, CTOR is likely in a precarious position where future funding needs may require issuing new shares at below-market prices, thereby reducing existing shareholders' ownership stakes. The company's size and stage make it more vulnerable to aggressive financing strategies that can quickly erode shareholder value.

What Typically Happens Next

Companies with similar profiles often proceed through a series of capital-raising mechanisms such as shelf registrations, ATM programs, or warrant exercises. These actions are common in micro-cap firms trying to extend their cash runway while maintaining operations. Given the nature of CTOR’s risk profile, it is likely to explore these financing options in the near term. Monitoring for any public announcements related to new equity offerings or capital structure changes is essential.

Monitoring Playbook

To effectively monitor CTOR, utilize DilutionWatch to track its DilutionScore and key risk factors like Offering Ability, Cash Runway, and Float Risk. Set alerts for any score increases beyond 5 points or when new equity-related filings appear. Check the company’s SEC filings weekly, especially around earnings releases or quarterly reports. When thresholds are hit, review recent 8-Ks, S-1s, and other documents to identify potential dilutive actions. Additionally, track Shelf & ATM Monitor for any upcoming offerings that could impact CTOR’s share count.

Early Warning Signals

Several signals indicate worsening dilution risk. First, a sudden increase in Offering Ability or Cash Runway scores may suggest the company is nearing financial distress and may be planning new equity issuances. Second, an unexpected spike in Convertible Note Risk points could imply increased convertible debt activity that might lead to future share issuance. Third, any filing indicating a pending shelf registration or ATM program launch signals potential dilution events on the horizon.

What a Positive Resolution Looks Like

A positive shift would involve a capital raise that significantly improves the company's cash position, thereby reducing the Cash Runway risk score. Another resolution path includes the expiration or repayment of warrants and convertible notes, which reduces future dilution potential. A decrease in Offering Ability due to improved financial stability or a strategic decision to defer new equity issuance also indicates a healthier outlook for shareholders.

Watch For

Any sudden rise in Offering Ability or Convertible Note Risk scores, especially when paired with new SEC filings related to equity offerings or capital structure changes.

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