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35 /100
MEDIUM RISK
Score updated Jul 28, 2026

ARCC — Ares Capital Corporation Dilution Risk Tracker

Track ARCC dilution risk with DilutionWatch's stock tracker. DilutionScore™ measures dilution risk across 5 factors — lower scores indicate higher risk of share dilution.

⚠️ Not financial advice. Do your own research before making any investment decisions.

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As of July 28, 2026, Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) has a DilutionWatch DilutionScore of 35/100, rated MEDIUM dilution risk. Ares Capital Corporation has a market capitalization of $13.64B, 718.02M shares outstanding. Key dilution vectors include approximately 999 months of cash runway.

Source: DilutionWatch (dilutionwatch.com) — data updated daily from SEC EDGAR filings. Not financial advice.

Score Breakdown

📋 Offering Ability
62
💰 Cash Runway
0
📊 Float Risk
2
⚠️ Warrant Exposure
15
🔄Convertible Debt—

Dilution Forecast

☀️
Clear
No significant dilution signals
0%
No significant dilution signals detected for ARCC.
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Market Data

Market Cap$13.64B
Shares Outstanding718.02M
FloatN/A
Cash$505.00M
Debt$15.85B
Short InterestN/A

Institutional Holdings

36.2% institutional ownership
Source: Yahoo Finance · Detailed 13F holder data available for tracked tickers
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Short Interest

Short Interest45.29M
Days to Cover10.0
% of FloatN/A
FINRA data as of Jul 15, 2026

Recent SEC Activity

xbrl XBRL CONVERTIBLE 2024-12-31
8-K 8K EVENT 2026-04-28
3 FORM3 2026-03-24
4 INSIDER TRANSACTION 2026-02-10
4 INSIDER TRANSACTION 2026-02-09
Full SEC filing analysis available with free account →

Recent News

No recent news

What This Means for ARCC Shareholders

Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) has a DilutionScore of 35/100, rated Medium dilution risk. This tier indicates some dilution exposure — often an older shelf registration with remaining capacity, warrants not yet exercised, or a cash position that will require monitoring over the next several quarters. Score as of July 28, 2026.

DilutionWatch's EDGAR monitoring for ARCC shows no major active dilution programs at this time. The primary risk categories — shelf registration capacity, ATM programs, warrant overhang, and cash runway — are each within normal ranges for a company of this profile. This can change quickly if a new S-3 or Form S-1 is filed.

DilutionWatch tracks over 25 SEC filing types for ARCC in real-time, scanning EDGAR every 60 seconds. Recent 8-K filings are present; material events disclosures can sometimes precede or accompany capital raises. The DilutionWatch shows real-time score changes for ARCC alongside comparable medium-risk stocks. Not financial advice — this analysis is for informational purposes only.

Understanding ARCC's Dilution Risk Factors

Primary Risk Drivers

The two highest-risk factors for Ares Capital Corporation are Offering Ability and Cash Runway. Offering Ability scores at a moderate level, indicating that the company has the capacity to raise capital through equity offerings, which can dilute existing shareholders. The Cash Runway score of zero reflects an abundant cash position, meaning the company has no immediate liquidity concerns; however, this also implies it may rely less on equity financing and more on other methods, potentially increasing reliance on warrants or convertible notes.

Factors Currently Not a Concern

Float Risk, Warrant Exposure, and Convertible Note Risk all score very low. Float Risk at near zero suggests the company's stock is not heavily held by short sellers or speculative investors, reducing potential dilution from such sources. Warrant Exposure and Convertible Note Risk are similarly low, indicating minimal risk from these instruments. A change in strategy—such as issuing new warrants or entering into convertible note agreements—would elevate these scores.

SEC Filings to Watch

Key filings to monitor include S-3 registration statements, which signal potential large-scale equity offerings; 424B5 documents, often used for shelf offerings of securities; and 8-K Item 1.01 announcements, which disclose material events like new financing activities. Additionally, 10-Q reports provide quarterly updates on capital structure changes that could affect share count and dilution potential.

How Dilution Happens

Dilution occurs when a company issues additional shares to raise capital. For ARCC, Offering Ability increases the risk of new equity issuance, which directly reduces existing shareholder ownership. Warrant exposure and convertible note risk indicate that if warrants are exercised or notes converted, more shares enter circulation. These mechanisms can compound over time, especially if the company continues to use these financing tools without offsetting actions like share buybacks.

What Would Make This Worse

A significant deterioration in ARCC’s risk profile would occur if Offering Ability increased alongside a drop in cash reserves, forcing the company into more frequent equity financings. Additionally, a shift in strategy toward aggressive warrant issuance or convertible note programs could substantially increase dilution pressure, especially if these instruments are converted at high valuations, further reducing existing shareholder value.

Key Insight

While ARCC's current cash position is strong, the moderate Offering Ability score indicates potential future dilution risk should financing needs arise.

How to Monitor ARCC for Dilution Risk

What This Risk Level Means

A dilution score of 35/100 for Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) indicates a moderate risk of dilution, which is typical for large-cap operating companies. At this level, the company has some exposure to potential dilutive actions, but it is not yet in a critical zone. For a large-cap entity like ARCC, this score suggests that while management may be considering or has initiated certain financing strategies, the risk of significant dilution remains manageable. The company's size and operating status place it in a category where dilution can occur without immediate catastrophic impact, but careful monitoring is essential.

What Typically Happens Next

Companies with moderate dilution risk often proceed with financing activities such as shelf registrations or ATM (At-the-Market) offerings. These mechanisms allow for the gradual issuance of shares over time, which can help raise capital without creating large market disruptions. In some cases, warrant exercises may also contribute to dilution, particularly if the company has issued equity warrants that are nearing expiration or have been exercised at favorable terms. ARCC’s profile suggests it might be preparing for such activities as part of its ongoing capital structure management.

Monitoring Playbook

To effectively track ARCC’s dilution risk, use DilutionWatch to set up alerts for any score changes or new filings. Monitor the company at least monthly, paying close attention to SEC documents such as 8-Ks and S-1s. Set thresholds for when a score rises above 45/100, which may indicate increasing risk. If scores exceed these levels, review recent capital activity and consider whether new offerings or warrant exercises are underway. Regular checks through the Shelf & ATM Monitor can also provide early visibility into potential issuance plans.

Early Warning Signals

Several specific signals in SEC filings or score changes may indicate worsening dilution risk. First, a sudden spike in the Offering Ability factor score (as seen here at 62/100) could suggest an upcoming capital raise or issuance. Second, the filing of new shelf registration statements often precedes large-scale equity offerings. Third, an increase in the number of warrants outstanding without corresponding strategic developments may signal a higher risk of dilution.

What a Positive Resolution Looks Like

A positive change in ARCC’s dilution profile would occur if the company undertakes actions that reduce exposure to further issuance. This could include completing a capital raise at favorable terms, paying down debt to decrease reliance on equity financing, or allowing warrants to expire without exercise. Any of these outcomes would likely result in a lower score and improved risk posture for the company.

Watch For

Any sudden increase in Offering Ability factor score or filing of new shelf registration statements, as these are early indicators of potential dilutive activity.

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