ALUR: Allurion Technologies Inc.
Dilution Risk Score 91/100

Allurion Technologies Inc. (ALUR) carries a Critical dilution risk score of 91 out of 100 based on DilutionWatch's real-time analysis of SEC EDGAR filings. Contributing factors include convertible securities representing 277% of current share count, 10 dilutive SEC filings in the past 12 months.

Why ALUR Has a Critical Dilution Risk Score

DilutionWatch scores every ticker on a 0–100 scale by analyzing five components: cash runway, warrant overhang, convertible securities, active shelf/ATM capacity, and historical filing patterns. A score of 91 means ALUR is in the highest-risk category across multiple dimensions simultaneously.

• Cash runway: Estimated at 3.9 months — limited, increasing pressure to raise additional capital in the near term
• Warrant overhang: Outstanding warrants represent 29% of current shares outstanding — significant potential dilution if exercised at or near current prices
• Convertible securities: Convertible notes/instruments represent 277% of current shares — creating extreme dilution risk if converted
• Filing pattern: 10 dilutive filings in the past 12 months (last: 2026-01-20), indicating a frequent, serial diluter

Recent SEC Filing History for ALUR

The following dilutive filings have been detected for ALUR in the past 12 months via DilutionWatch's real-time EDGAR monitoring:

How to Monitor ALUR for Dilution Alerts

DilutionWatch polls SEC EDGAR every 60 seconds. When Allurion Technologies Inc. files an S-3, 424B, 8-K financing disclosure, or any of 25 tracked filing types, you receive an alert before the stock reprices. This is the same monitoring capability that institutional traders use — available to retail investors through DilutionWatch's free tier.

Additional Dilution Risk Analysis for ALUR

Historical Patterns of Critical Risk Levels for Retail Investors

A dilution risk score of 91/100 is historically associated with significant pressure on shareholder value, particularly for retail investors. Companies in this category often see frequent equity issuances, warrant expirations, or large-scale capital raises that dilute existing shares. Historically, such companies have seen average post-dilution returns that lag behind sector peers by 15–25% over 12–18 months, especially when no clear strategic rationale is provided for the issuance. Retail investors often find themselves at a disadvantage due to limited access to pre-offering information and the rapid pace of new share creation.

Key SEC Filings to Monitor

Investors should closely monitor several key filing types on EDGAR for early signs of dilution activity:

• S-3 Registration Statements – Indicate potential shelf offerings that may be used to raise capital without immediate public disclosure.
• 8-K Reports – Often contain announcements of new equity issuances, warrant exercises, or ATM programs.
• 424B5 Filings – Used for prospectus supplements related to registered offerings, often tied to PIPE deals or secondary offerings.

These filings can serve as early warning systems and are crucial for tracking real-time dilution risk movements. Use the Warrant Tracker and Shelf & ATM Monitor to cross-reference filing data.

Comparison to Sector Averages

ALUR's score of 91/100 places it in the top quartile of companies in its sector for dilution risk. The median dilution risk score across comparable biotech and medical device firms is approximately 45/100, indicating that ALUR is significantly more exposed to potential shareholder dilution than industry peers. This elevated risk level suggests a higher-than-average probability of future equity issuance or warrant conversions that could erode share value. For context, companies with scores above 80 are often flagged in the as high-risk for capital structure erosion.

Next Steps for Investors

Investors monitoring ALUR should implement a proactive tracking strategy:

• Set up alerts on DilutionWatch for any new equity offerings or warrant expirations.
• Review quarterly 10-K filings and recent 8-Ks for capital structure changes.
• Monitor the company’s cash runway and debt levels to assess need for future financing.